Kansas revenue estimate rises slightly; forecast warns of structural imbalance

The Kansas Consensus Revenue Estimating group revised its state general fund receipts upward for fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 at a press conference, but officials warned the updated profile still shows rapidly eroding reserves and a structural imbalance.

The group now estimates State General Fund (SGF) receipts for fiscal 2025 at $9,890,000,000, an increase of $157,900,000 (1.6%) from the fall estimate. For fiscal 2026 the SGF estimate is $10,066,000,000, an increase of $219,600,000 (2.2%) from the fall estimate and roughly $175,800,000 (1.8%) higher than the revised fiscal 2025 estimate, presenters said.

Those revisions, officials said, reflect actual receipts that outpaced the previous estimate by more than $200 million through March and updated economic assumptions. The forecasters raised their 2025 inflation estimate from 2.3% to 2.9% and trimmed their real Kansas GDP forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%, while raising nominal Kansas GDP to about 4.5–4.6%, according to the presentation.

"The recurring theme throughout the forecasting cycle is an increased volatility in the state's economy," said Shirley, a revenue-estimating official, summarizing the group’s findings and listing risks including persistent elevated inflation, trade policy changes, sustained high interest rates and geopolitical risks.

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