Committee hears warning that data-center growth could require new dispatchable generation

Dr. David Dismukes, professor emeritus at the Center for Energy Studies, Louisiana State University, told the Kansas Utilities Committee on an informational day that rapid growth in electricity demand — driven in part by data centers, industrial electrification and expanded oil-and-gas and refining activity — could create a capacity shortfall unless policymakers and utilities plan for more dispatchable generation.

Dismukes said the electric system has added substantial renewable energy in recent years but that those resources are “intermittent” and often unavailable during peak hours. He warned the committee that the system is approaching an inflection point in which capacity — not just energy production — will determine reliability and rates.

“If we are hitting a new era for energy demand, we are and we’re hitting it very quickly,” Dismukes said. He told senators that many transmission interconnection requests are for renewables and that regions such as the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and PJM have far more renewable capacity in queues than thermal (dispatchable) capacity.

Dismukes presented data he said show roughly 112,000 megawatts of renewable capacity in SPP’s interconnection queue versus about 13,000 megawatts of thermal capacity for that footprint, and noted that effective load-carrying capability (ELCC) for wind can be low — on the order of about 13 percent — while natural-gas units typically provide much higher ELCC (his presentation cited ranges from roughly 60 to 80 percent, depending on the unit). “More reliable natural gas-fired generation is gonna be it,” he said.

Committee members asked how policy and utility practice should respond. Senator Thompson asked whether major companies building their own generation would reduce system needs; Dismukes said such behind-the-meter generation can help but urged care to avoid inequities with other large industrial customers and to follow state siting and legal requirements. “You don’t want to start affording data centers all these wonderful opportunities ... and then ignoring the Toyota plant or the refinery,” he said.

On affordability, Dismukes showed charts he said indicate retail electricity rates have increased in recent years and that lower-income households are more exposed to higher energy burdens. He emphasized the difference between energy and capacity needs and argued that batteries and other technologies are complementary but do not eliminate the need for dispatchable, on-demand capacity for large, continuous loads. “Batteries are great in supplemental peak hours, but you’re gonna still need ... larger thermal requirements,” he said.

Dismukes also urged regulators and utilities to offer transparent tariff terms for large users — minimum-load requirements, contract lengths, termination penalties and collateral — so prospective data-center developers understand obligations and do not shift costs to other ratepayers. He argued that much of the investment for data centers and related infrastructure will be private capital rather than ratepayer-funded programs.

Senators asked about alternatives including batteries, geothermal and nuclear. Dismukes described those as useful or niche tools but said costs, siting and technical complexity limit their near-term ability to substitute for dispatchable thermal generation at scale. He also noted the time-sensitive nature of the opportunity: many data-center proposals and industrial changes move quickly, and he urged Kansas regulators to remove barriers and provide clarity so projects can proceed without unexpected cross-subsidies.

The presentation was informational; the committee did not take formal action.

The committee received Dismukes’s slide deck and contact information for follow-up questions.