Study: Santa Cruz surf economy worth roughly $195 million a year; sea-level rise threatens popular breaks
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Summary
A Save the Waves/Black Surf Santa Cruz study presented Nov. 4 estimated roughly $194.7 million in annual surf-related spending tied to Santa Cruz breaks and warned that sea-level rise and coastal armoring could sharply reduce surfability without adaptation.
A first-of-its-kind surfonomics and vulnerability study presented to the Santa Cruz County Board of Supervisors on Nov. 4 found that surfing and surf-related activity generate roughly $194.7 million annually for the region and that many iconic surf breaks could lose surfable hours as sea level rises.
"Surf ecosystems need to be embedded in the policy process," said Sean Burns, reserves network coordinator for Save the Waves, noting the study was supported by a grant from the California Ocean Protection Council. Burns said the study combined local expert knowledge, visitor data and economic modeling to estimate 783,000 annual surf visits and $194.7 million in direct economic activity tied to surf tourism, lessons and gear purchases.
Estella "Bella" Bonner, executive director of Black Surf Santa Cruz County, described focus-group work with local BIPOC participants that identified barriers to ocean access including economic cost, limited transportation, safety concerns in the lineup, and a lack of visible representation in programming.
"Economic barriers — high cost limit access for Black and BIPOC communities," Bonner said, summarizing participants' concerns about affordability, transit access and cultural safety in the water.
Integral Consulting presented technical modeling. David Bridal, a consultant, showed scenario modeling in which continued coastal armoring and unchecked sea-level rise reduce the percentage of daylight hours when many urban breaks are surfable. He said sand-management or replacing high-slope revetments with lower-footprint approaches could preserve surfability for longer; managed retreat would preserve surf breaks the longest but requires long-term planning.
Board members asked how the study could inform the county's Local Coastal Program (LCP) update and whether surf-access equity measures — such as surfboard transit access or targeted youth programming — could be advanced. Stephanie Hansen of CDI said staff will consider the study and its methodology for unincorporated areas and that select study authors are on the LCP community working group.
Supervisors and presenters urged that findings be integrated with hazard mitigation and climate adaptation planning; staff said a bridal vulnerability assessment and adaptation trade-off analysis are expected as part of the LCP process in coming months.
The study's authors described the work as a pilot that could be scaled statewide to quantify surf break value and help inform coastal adaptation decisions that balance public access, shoreline protection and ecosystem health.