Santa Monica council adopts updated hazard-mitigation plan, prompting debate over evacuation analysis

The Santa Monica City Council adopted an updated Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP) on Nov. 18, 2025, after a presentation from the Office of Emergency Management and a lengthy public exchange about evacuation-route capacity. The plan, which staff said is designed to meet FEMA’s standards, lays out a five-year set of mitigation actions and is intended to unlock eligibility for federal hazard-mitigation grants once FEMA completes its review.

The plan’s author, Lindsay Coll of the Office of Emergency Management, said the LHMP inventories local hazards, identifies priorities for mitigation work and focuses on prevention and planning rather than day-to-day emergency response. "This plan is not a response-focused plan; that is not what FEMA requires of this plan," Coll told the council during her presentation. She described modeling work using FEMA’s Hazus tool, tsunami inundation mapping and a Stone Canyon dam failure scenario, and cited updated wildfire risk after January 2025’s Palisades fire.

Why it matters: FEMA approval of the LHMP is a prerequisite for certain hazard-mitigation grants. Council members and staff said federal sign-off is necessary to access funding for seismic retrofits, tsunami warning systems, evacuation planning and other measures that could reduce future damage and loss.

Residents and neighborhood groups pressed staff for additional analysis. "Without knowing the capacity of our evacuation routes, you simply don't know if we can survive," Tricia Crane, chair of Northeast Neighbors, told the council, asking explicitly for a capacity analysis she said AB 747 and SB 99 require. Council members asked whether the state law mandates a quantitative study; staff answered that the statutes require analysis but do not prescribe a single quantitative test and said the LHMP uses a holistic, qualitative approach to route selection. Staff said a robust evacuation plan — which could include quantitative work and consultant support — is planned for 2026 and that such studies may cost up to about $85,000.

The presentation included hazard and exposure estimates that staff said were produced with Hazus and other tools. Staff cited that the city recorded 60 fatal or severe injury roadway crashes in 2024 — up from 39 in 2023 — and showed flood, tsunami and wildfire exposure maps and damage estimates. In the slide deck staff referenced an estimated private-sector damage figure in a sea-level-rise scenario of roughly $22,000,000 and a total damage figure reported as about $847,500,000; Coll stressed those figures represent modeled scenarios with a wide range of uncertainty.

Council action and next steps: Council member Hall moved and Council member Raskin seconded the staff recommendation to adopt the LHMP on the consent calendar. The motion passed by roll call with council members recorded in favor and one member absent. Coll said staff will send the plan to Cal OES and FEMA for review; staff will then respond to FEMA questions and return with revisions if needed. Council members and speakers urged the city to pursue a mix of mitigation actions now — public education, evacuation drills, tsunami signage and potential siren or alert projects — and to pursue grant funding that the LHMP would make possible.

What remains unresolved: Community members continue to press for a publicly available, quantitative evacuation-route capacity analysis tied explicitly to the safety element and future housing growth under state housing laws. Council and staff acknowledged the LHMP can be updated and that many mitigation actions will depend on funding, which FEMA grants could enable.

The council approved the LHMP to move forward to FEMA review; staff will return with implementation details, funding requests and updates as FEMA’s comments and funding opportunities become available.