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County mapping shows potential rural buildout, prompting water quality concerns
Summary
A new internal GIS inventory estimates 950 existing dwellings and a potential buildout of 1,697 additional dwellings in unincorporated areas under current zoning; planners warned the projected doubling of residences could worsen nitrate problems tied to exempt wells and septic systems.
Planning staff presented an internal GIS mapping project that estimates dwelling counts and potential residential buildout across unincorporated Morrow County. Steven, a planning staff member, said the parcel‑based analysis found about 950 existing dwellings and a potential for 1,697 additional dwellings under current zoning assumptions (total buildout 2,647), a ~185% increase over current dwellings.
Staff emphasized the estimate’s assumptions and limits: assessor parcel data and satellite imagery were used and the analysis excluded EFU zoned parcels from the projection because EFU requires case‑by‑case review. Steven described the method as an estimate with some small errors that will be refined as staff reconciles parcels and dwelling counts.
Planning Director Tamara Mabbit framed the mapping as important long‑range information given water‑quality concerns in the area. She said the county cannot directly regulate private wells or septic systems but highlighted nitrate issues in rural exempt wells and the potential for groundwater impacts if buildout occurs. “We more than double that if all of those parcels were to be built out,” she said, adding the map will inform comp‑plan updates and potential policy responses.
Commissioners pressed staff on whether the projected buildout assumed rezoning (staff said it did not) and on how EFU (exclusive farm use) parcels were treated. Staff said EFU parcels with dwellings are counted but projections for EFU buildout were excluded because they are too case‑specific.
What’s next: Staff will refine the inventory and use the mapping to inform the comprehensive plan’s Goal 5 and 6 updates and water‑quality policy discussions; DEQ has seen the initial estimate and acknowledged it is an estimate rather than a final inventory.
