Outside expert urges predictive risk models, warns SDM checklists underperform

Oct 30, 2025

UNC researcher Emily Putnam Ornstein briefed the committee on predictive risk modeling as an alternative to checkbox SDM tools, citing Allegheny and Los Angeles County case studies that used models to flag high‑risk investigations for enhanced supervisory support and reported measurable safety improvements in targeted groups.

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Emily Putnam Ornstein, a professor in social work who has advised multiple child welfare agencies, told the committee that many current intake and risk‑assessment tools in use are dated operator‑driven checklists that place heavy documentation burdens on workers and can perform poorly in predicting future harm. She argued automated predictive models that pull historic case management data and produce risk stratification for supervisors can be more accurate and act as a workforce intervention.

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