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Hamilton County updated on children's services levy: placement costs surge and consultants model multimillion-dollar options
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Summary
Job and Family Services officials told commissioners that rising out-of-home placement costs and growing caseloads have driven the children's services levy toward a structural funding gap; consultants modeled scenarios requiring $65M'$123.4M in additional annual revenue depending on service levels.
Hamilton County Job and Family Services (JFS) officials told commissioners on Jan. 20 that sharply rising placement costs and increasing numbers of children in custody have created a structural funding shortfall in the county's children's services levy and that consultants are modeling multiple scenarios for possible ballot options in 2026.
John Nelson, interim director of JFS, and Assistant Administrator Webb presented data showing that the number of children in custody rose from about 2,603 in 2021 to roughly 3,000 in 2025, and that placement-related expenditures have increased markedly. Nelson illustrated the human and financial stakes with a composite case he called "Ruby," saying intensive care for a high-need child could cost the county about $178,000 in a single year.
County staff and consultants showed that while average children in care rose about 19% from 2021 to 2025, out-of-home care costs rose far faster. Staff reported examples that foster-home costs have risen, group-home costs and residential treatment rates have increased, and that statewide rate increases are reflected locally. Using consultant modeling, staff described three scenarios: maintaining current service levels would require an additional ~$123.4 million annual revenue; a reduced-service scenario could require about $74 million; and a third, lower model under development is near $65 million.
Commissioners pressed staff on a range of follow-ups: near-term cuts under consideration, accuracy of consultant projections after prior forecast differences, the size of current fund balances and how the county reached the present trajectory, and whether the community will support a property-tax ballot measure in the current economic climate. County staff said the Tax Levy Review Committee (TLRC) is accelerating review, consultants have been asked for a final report in mid-February, and staff plan to supply household-impact calculations for both the traditional $100,000-home example and an updated calculation based on current average assessments.
County leaders emphasized two lines of response: reduce costs where possible through prevention and kinship recruitment'strategies staff say have shown some success'and press for state-level changes such as possible statewide "rate cards" or regional purchasing arrangements that could reduce per-diem and placement costs. Commissioners also urged staff to examine cross-jurisdictional approaches and to be cautious about reliance on consultant estimates alone.
No formal decision was made at the meeting about ballot timing; staff listed May 5 and Nov. 3, 2026, as available election dates and said they would return with more precise millage, taxpayer-impact calculations and consultant findings before any ballot placement decision.
