San Rafael presents three adaptation paths to address rising tides; study estimates up to $1.8 billion for most transformative option

San Rafael officials and their consultants laid out three distinct strategies to reduce flooding and overtopping risks in the city’s low-lying basin during a public webinar: raising continuous shoreline edges, installing an operable canal gate with a large forward pump, or pursuing long‑term incremental elevation and redevelopment that would reconfigure land along the canal.

The study team, led by project manager Andy Sternad of Wagner and Ball, emphasized that the community is already seeing “tipping points” where king tides and storm surge overtop informal shorelines. “These are tipping points, we’re already seeing these overtopping impacts,” Sternad said during the presentation, noting recent observed tides of about 8.37 feet in 2024 and an earlier-month tide near 8.7 feet.

Why it matters: thousands of residents and essential facilities lie on land already below high-tide elevations. The team estimated that roughly 16,000 people live in the area vulnerable to bay and canal flooding and modeled a sharp rise in impacts once water levels reach the 8–9 foot range—a threshold that would make previously rare events much more frequent.

What the alternatives would do: the raised‑edge option (Alternative 1) focuses on constructing continuous levees, seawalls and raised roads to protect existing structures…