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OUSD lays out 2024-25 budget outlook, stress tests and stabilization ideas
Summary
At a June 13 hearing, district finance staff summarized state budget shifts and presented multi-year local projections, stress-test results and proposed stabilization options — including a pension stabilization trust, expanded CARES childcare slots, textbook adoption funding and targeted reserve commitments — while noting uncertainty in state COLA and revenue forecasts.
District business staff presented a detailed budget hearing on June 13 that reviewed state-level changes, local revenue and expense projections, and risk-management options.
Presenters described the state-level "maneuver" and May revise context: statutory COLA expectations fell from earlier projections (staff cited earlier assumptions near 3.94% that were revised down to 1.07% in the May revision and a 0.76% figure used for planning). Rivera and budget staff walked through five-year projections, explained the district's stress tests (including a scenario removing roughly $48 million of projected revenue), and said the district met the board'established reserve criteria under that stress test.
Key district assumptions and commitments included: a continued enrollment decline projection (about 361 students per year for the near term), a budgeted attendance/ADA rate of 94%, a three-year textbook-adoption allocation totaling roughly $60 million, increased safety set-asides (reported as $1,000,000 for the near term), and multi-year restricted-program balances the staff expected to spend across years. Staff proposed potential stabilization tools such as creating a pension-stabilization trust to use excess assets in an existing retiree benefits trust to offset rising STRS/PERS costs.
Staff also described revenue opportunities and program investments: expanding the CARES childcare/aftercare program (2022-23 actuals cited: ~$6.2M revenue, ~$4.0M expenditures and current reserves), leveraging state matching funds for kitchen equipment to expand scratch cooking and meal participation, and pursuing transportation grants (the presentation cited roughly $10.8M in grant funding for buses, with $2M local cost). Presenters emphasized conservative assumptions and recommended committing a portion of reserves to address near-term uncertainty.
What happens next: staff will post the proposed budget materials, return for formal adoption on the statutory schedule and continue collaboration with the county office on multi-year projections and stress-test assumptions.
