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Statewide analysis: Utah will need about 842,000 homes in 30 years; constraints leave a large shortfall
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Summary
Envision Utah and partners told the Regional Growth Committee the state will demand roughly 840,000–842,000 new homes over 30 years but can build only about 600,000 under current constraints (water, sewer, transportation, zoning), leaving an estimated shortfall of roughly 235,000 homes unless regional infrastructure and policy changes occur.
Jason Brown, chief executive officer of Envision Utah, told the Regional Growth Committee that the state will need roughly 840,000–842,000 new homes over the next 30 years. “We expect we're going to need in the state 840,000 new homes in order to meet our demand,” Brown said, and added that current constraints mean the state can only build about 600,000 units based on today’s water supply, sewer capacity, transportation plans and zoning.
The presentation described a three‑part approach: build a structural demand model from demographic forecasts and market trends, distribute that demand across market types (greenfield, infill, transit‑adjacent), then apply constraints (water, sewer, planned transportation, land‑use rules and developable acres). Brown summarized the headline finding: “we are gonna come up short by about 235,000 homes.”
Ty McCutcheon, chair of the board at Envision Utah, said the study married local land‑use inputs with market behavior to produce more locally grounded results. “The nexus of those two things … is what's really unique and transformational about what this is teaching us,” McCutcheon said.
Presenters and committee members framed the number as a baseline or ‘‘do‑nothing’’ scenario. Andrew Gruber, WFRC executive director, and others stressed that the modeled shortfall is avoidable if regional policy and major infrastructure investments align with growth expectations. Gruber and presenters pointed to House Bill 492, recently adopted by the state legislature, as an example of policy intended to address regional infrastructure needs: HB 492 creates a $250 million fund—$150 million in grants for Salt Lake County and $100 million in loans across the state—intended to unlock housing by funding regional water, sewer and transportation infrastructure.
The analysis also breaks demand and shortfalls by market type and geography. Jason Brown described expected distribution on the Wasatch Front as roughly 50% of new units in greenfield areas, 35% in single‑family attached types, and the remainder in multifamily forms; when constraints are applied, greenfield acreage is still identified as needing major regional infrastructure to serve hundreds of thousands of units. Presenters cautioned that some construction typologies (for example, denser podium or concrete multifamily) may not be market‑feasible in all places without public intervention or subsidy.
Committee members asked for additional detail on rental vs. owner‑occupied shares, finer geographic breakdowns and comparisons to peer regions; presenters said those details are in the full written report and can be provided in follow‑up materials. Several members emphasized the need to consider water as a constant constraint and to coordinate funding and planning across jurisdictions to unlock large‑scale development.
Next steps: presenters invited committee feedback and offered to meet with jurisdictions to discuss implications and implementation options. WFRC and Envision Utah staff will circulate the full report and data links after the meeting.
