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Lake Elmo staff recommend amending 2040 plan after Met Council "Imagine 2050" numbers and White Bear Lake memo
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Summary
City staff told the Lake Elmo council Met Council system‑statement forecasts appear low for the city after a White Bear Lake methodology memo; staff recommended a 2040 amendment to carry higher 2030/2040 projections into the 2050 plan (examples: 2030 population ~19,200; 2040 ~21,400) and asked council whether to proceed while coordinating with Met Council and DNR for water allocations.
City planning staff recommended that Lake Elmo pursue an amendment to its 2040 comprehensive plan to correct near‑term forecasts the staff believes understate current and entitled development.
Director Stilpa and planning staff told the council that the Met Council’s recent system statement (Imagine 2050 material) shows lower 2030/2040 forecasts for Lake Elmo than the staff’s internal development‑based projections. Stilpa summarized staff’s recommended technical approach: amend the adopted 2040 plan to raise the 2030 household and population forecasts and carry those updated numbers forward into the 2050 plan. "If we go forward with a comp plan amendment to our current comp plan, they would carry those numbers forward into our 2050 plan," Stilpa said.
Context: staff said the discrepancy likely stems in part from a White Bear Lake methodology memo posted by Met Council staff; that memo led to regional adjustments the city believes do not reflect its known entitled projects and recent permitting. Staff presented permitting and pipeline data (including Limerick, a 600+‑unit project) that, when phased in, push near‑term population estimates substantially higher than the system statement. The staff also noted sewer interceptor capacity and Minnesota DNR water appropriation processes as constraints—Met Council staff told the city it is unlikely to change the 2050 policy position until the White Bear Lake work group completes its work (staff cited a mid‑2027 review tied to the work group and a target date of 06/30/2027).
Why it matters: comprehensive‑plan forecasts guide wastewater planning, capital improvement schedules and the land‑use capacity cities must provide. Staff warned that if forecasts are locked low, regional infrastructure providers could use them in review memos and that the city could face constraints when entitled projects reach construction.
Council discussion focused on three paths: accept the Met Council system statement numbers; amend the 2040 plan to align forecasts with staff’s entitlements and projections (staff recommended this route); or adopt an alternative forecast/range for 2050 and ask Met Council to treat it as an alternative scenario while the White Bear Lake work group completes its work. Several council members supported asking staff to pursue the 2040 amendment and to coordinate with Met Council and the DNR on water‑appropriation justification (staff noted a practical DNR appropriation case could use a 19,200 figure for 2030 to justify allocations).
What’s next: staff will (a) move forward with technical materials and outreach to the Met Council if council confirms direction, (b) continue sewer capacity analysis with regional partners, and (c) return with fiscal impact analysis on utility and general fund effects of different forecast paths. No formal vote was recorded at the workshop.
