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Preschool For All update: county presents two financing scenarios and warns of modeling sensitivity
Summary
County budget staff presented updated Preschool For All (PFA) revenue analysis, showing a baseline that assumes 11,200 seats (fund balance dips in the early 2030s) and an alternative 8,500‑seat scenario with a delayed tax increase; staff cautioned small assumption changes materially alter long‑range outcomes.
Jeff Renfro (budget office) presented a focused update on the Preschool For All (PFA) financial model, concentrating on revenue assumptions and scenario analysis derived from state tax‑return data. He reminded the board that the PFA tax applies to Multnomah County taxable income above specified thresholds and that the model assumes a scheduled 0.8 percentage‑point tax increase on Jan. 1, 2027.
Renfro said the county’s analysis uses state returns and noted a roughly 2,000‑filer decline in one year of the data set, but he cautioned that late…
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