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JLBC’s April forecast cuts 4‑year low in available resources to $378 million
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Summary
At an April Finance Advisory Committee meeting JLBC staff said the April revenue forecast reduces the four‑year low point in available general‑fund resources from $577 million (January baseline) to $378 million, excluding the $1.7 billion budget stabilization fund, and urged caution amid geopolitical and domestic risks.
The Joint Legislative Budget Committee’s Finance Advisory Committee received an updated April revenue forecast that reduces the four‑year low point in available general‑fund resources to $378,000,000, down from the January estimate of $577,000,000, JLBC staff reported.
Richard, who opened the meeting, summarized the slide deck and said the decline reflects a more cautious April sector outlook. “That number is now reduced by just about $200,000,000 to $378,000,000,” he said, noting the April figures exclude $1,700,000,000 held in the budget stabilization fund.
Hans Ulrissen, JLBC’s chief economist, said the April forecast (displayed in the presentation as the solid blue bars) is generally more cautious than the January baseline (striped bars) and showed slightly lower growth rates in the near term: “If you look at ’26 and ’27, we see growth rates of 3.4% now compared to 3.6% back in January,” he said.
Jack Brown, a JLBC staff member who framed scenario risks earlier in the presentation, told the committee the probability of meeting either forecast depends heavily on the duration and severity of the Middle East conflict and its effects on energy markets and consumer behavior. He warned that a prolonged disruption could produce revenue outcomes below the April projections by reducing consumer spending and raising inflation.
JLBC staff emphasized the forecast uncertainty and urged that budget planning account for downside scenarios. The committee did not take any formal votes during the meeting; staff said the next full meeting of the Finance Advisory Committee will be in October.
Clarifying details extracted from the presentation: the January baseline low‑point available resources was stated as $577,000,000; the April forecast low point is $378,000,000; the budget stabilization fund balance noted in the presentation is $1,700,000,000; revenue growth rate examples for 2026–2028 were given in the presentation slides and discussed by staff.
