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PASA demographic forecast: Alvin ISD projects continued growth, elementary overcrowding in next five years
Summary
Consultants told the Alvin ISD board that new housing and a recent uptick in births will sustain enrollment growth; projections show several elementary schools exceeding 120% utilization within five years and a middle‑scenario projection of nearly 37,000 students in 10 years.
Consultants from Population & Survey Analysts (PASA) presented a detailed 10‑year enrollment forecast to the Alvin ISD board on April 1, saying the district remains in a high‑growth phase driven primarily by new single‑family housing. The middle (most likely) scenario projects nearly 37,000 students in a decade, with roughly 3,100 new housing occupancies expected during the period.
PASA showed that births in the district over the past four years have trended up — a factor that typically increases kindergarten enrollment when those children reach school age — and noted that in-migration tied to new subdivisions (Meridiana, Peach…
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