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Board adopts Las Posas Valley Bayesian optimization yield study to set operating yield and guide future actions
Summary
The board adopted a Basin Optimization Yield Study for Las Posas Valley that models sustainable pumping futures through 2040. The study identifies a project scenario and ramp‑down scenarios and will be revisited as monitoring and project implementation proceed.
The Fox Canyon board unanimously adopted the Las Posas Valley Bayesian Optimization Yield Study (BOYS), a technical modeling analysis to estimate sustainable pumping rates and to guide future operating yield and allocations.
The study uses two numerical groundwater models and evaluates a baseline (current pumping), project scenarios that include two modeled projects, and basin‑wide and differential ramp‑down scenarios. The technical team reported that, in the model, a project scenario incorporating a 3,140 acre‑foot reduction at nine specified wells would allow operation at roughly 36,860 acre‑feet per year without groundwater levels breaching minimum thresholds established in the Groundwater Sustainability Plan. In contrast, a basin‑wide ramp down of about 8,000 acre‑feet (approximately 20%) would produce an operating yield near 32,000 acre‑feet per year.
Dr. Farrugia and technical staff emphasized the iterative nature of BOYS: the study provides the technical basis for board policy but does not itself prescribe policy. PAC and TAC members reviewed multiple drafts and their comments were incorporated into the report, staff said. The board adopted the BOYS and directed staff and Watermaster to make the operating‑yield calculations and annual allocations that follow from the study and to prepare for the next scheduled BOYS update (planned for 2030, with future updates possible in 2035 and beyond).
What’s next: staff will calculate the operating yield and annual allocations derived from the study and integrate monitoring data to inform future BOYS updates. The board and stakeholders highlighted the need for robust groundwater elevation monitoring to ground‑truth model projections and support adaptive management.
