Analysts explain consensus forecasting, per‑capita metrics and caseload work groups

Jul 20, 2026

OFM and caseload forecasting staff described how per‑capita metrics and technical work groups produce maintenance‑level and caseload projections used in the four‑year outlook; they emphasized consensus among agency, legislative and OFM analysts.

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Staff described the consensus forecasting process used to produce caseload and per‑capita projections that feed into maintenance‑level calculations in the four‑year outlook. Robin Williams (OFM) explained that per‑capita or “per cap” measures isolate changes in unit cost from caseload growth in programs such as Medicaid.

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