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Staff: roughly 12,000'1,000 homes still needed; redevelopment and policy changes required
Summary
Using interim gross BLI densities applied to vacant and partially vacant residential land, staff said the city currently shows a remaining need of about 12,000'1,000 housing units; meeting discussion emphasized that a combination of baseline redevelopment, efficiency measures (upzoning, incentives) and likely UGB expansion will be needed to close the gap.
During the meeting's latter section, staff presented a high-level capacity calculation that left a substantial remaining housing need. "We have a remaining need that we need to meet of almost 13,000 homes," Heather (speaker 1) said as an interim figure after applying current gross BLI densities to vacant and partially vacant residential plan designations and setting commercial and redevelopment aside.
Staff emphasized that this number is provisional and will change as they update inputs (street-ROW percentages, 2025 monitoring data, and redevelopment assumptions). Beth Goodman clarified that reductions for partially vacant phantom capacity (a new provision in Oregon rules) will reduce counted capacity, while baseline redevelopment estimates will add capacity; together these, plus efficiency measures like designation changes or incentives, will determine whether the city must pursue a UGB expansion. "This remaining need to be met with baseline redevelopment, efficiency measures, and likely UGB expansion," Heather said.
Committee members asked how efficiency measures will be developed and reviewed. Heather said the technical group does not itself set policy but will receive quantification of candidate measures and participate in the outreach and review process before planning commission and council consideration.
