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Student-led analysis shows sharp decline in Avon tree canopy, ties loss to development
Summary
A student-commissioned remote-sensing study presented to Avon City Council found canopy cover fell from about 37.5% in 1995 to roughly 20.4% in 2026, with presenters linking the trend to development and estimating substantial lost ecosystem-service values.
Collin O’Donnell and consultant Leo Wible told Avon City Council that the city’s tree canopy has declined dramatically over three decades, dropping from about 37.5% in 1995 to an estimated 20.4% in 2026.
The presentation, introduced by Tree Commission Chair Rick Varga, described a MultiSpec and Landsat-based analysis that mapped canopy cover from 1995–2026. Wible said he selected scenes from May through September with less than 20% cloud cover to measure peak leaf-out and that the methodology used near-infrared indices to differentiate trees from grass and built surfaces. He reported that canopy fell by roughly 17.1% from the 1995 baseline and that the 2026 estimate indicates a loss of roughly 1,500 acres since 2025.
Wible tied the decline strongly to development activity. He showed time-lapse imagery and correlation charts and said the pattern “clearly conveyed the development of Avon Commons and numerous housing developments as major contributors to tree removal.” Council President Brian Fischer praised the work, and Mayor Bryan Jensen congratulated the presenters as local residents.
Wible also presented economic estimates of lost ecosystem services, saying the decline between 1995 and 2025 equated to at least $135,856 in stormwater remediation value, $175,000 in air pollution removal value, and nearly $500,000 in carbon sequestration value using i-Tree baseline data. For 2026 specifically, he said estimated losses included nearly $500,000 in carbon sequestration value and more than $150,000 in stormwater mitigation value compared with the prior year.
Council members questioned methodology and year-to-year variability. Ward 2 Councilmember Anne Marie Etienne asked about the apparent jump between 2025 and 2026; Wible acknowledged some variation due to MultiSpec’s classification limits and mixed-pixel effects but defended the overall directional trend and offered to share his spreadsheets and maps with staff.
The City accepted the presentation for informational purposes; the Tree Commission offered to email spatial maps to Council staff for further review. No formal policy or budget action was taken at the work session.
