DBEDT outlines draft framework and IO model to evaluate gambling options for the Legislature

Oscar Carvalho, an economist at the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism, presented a draft structure the department will use to prepare the working-group report to the Legislature under SCR 121.

Carvalho said the report will cover five core pillars: benchmarking other jurisdictions, reviewing legislative models, assessing feasibility and dislocation (including special economic-zone concepts), building a policy-evaluation framework, and aligning any market with the state's tourism strategy. He described using a Hawaii input-output (IO) model to estimate incremental demand, construction and operating impacts, tax revenues, leakages and financing costs across scenarios.

On revenue assumptions Carvalho said, "Out of a 100 wagers, about 9% is gonna be revenue," and that the state's ultimate take and allocation (regulatory costs, problem-gambling funds, affordable housing contributions) depends on the model selected and legislative decisions. Committee members asked for sensitivity analyses, clarity on export versus displacement effects, and how community-benefit agreements might be modeled. Carvalho said the draft is flexible and solicited written feedback and additional data from members to refine assumptions.