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Policy Analytics demos forecasting tool to model rate and distribution scenarios for Delaware County
Summary
Policy Analytics presented a dynamic forecasting model that uses Census and state collection data to estimate unit‑level LIT distributions under hypothetical rate and allocation scenarios; presenters said the model can incorporate municipal opt‑ins and weighted fire/EMS allocations.
Sam RB of Policy Analytics described a forecasting model designed to help the task force translate different rate and distribution choices into unit‑level revenue outcomes.
"We have a pretty dynamic local income tax model that we can project unit level projections based on hypothetical rate scenarios or distribution methodologies," Sam RB said, noting the model combines American Community Survey and Census data with recent Department of Revenue collection figures (the presenter cited use of 2020 and 2023 census inputs for different distribution needs).
Attendees were told the tool can show how a countywide municipal rate versus municipality‑adopted municipal rates would affect taxpayers and each unit's revenue, and that consultants will use the tool during future public workshops to run live scenarios as units provide financial and service data.
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