ERCOT says long‑term load forecast shows large potential data‑center growth — staff urge caution

Nathan Bigby, chief regulatory counsel at ERCOT, told the House Committee on State Affairs that the system operator's preliminary long‑term load forecast for 2032 — prepared under an interim methodology — shows about 368,000 megawatts, and that an estimated 228,000 megawatts of that total are projected data‑center load.

"The data we received show that the total load forecast for the ERCOT region based on these criteria for the year 2032 is approximately 368,000 megawatts," Bigby said. He and PUC staff warned the committee that the number likely overstates the amount of load that will actually interconnect, because the forecast currently reflects the entire universe of submissions, including speculative secondary‑market interconnection requests.

PUC staff described several mechanisms intended to screen speculative requests: site control evidence (deed, lease, or purchase agreement), tenant contracts or power contracts, financial security scaled to project maturity, and tiered "batch" designations so that only base loads with validated studies receive guaranteed megawatt allocations. Committee members pressed ERCOT and the PUC about refundability of upfront payments and the possibility of partial refunds for projects that later fail to receive allocations; staff said refund rules and nonrefundable minimums are under active debate.

The transcript records the forecast numbers, the staff warnings about speculation, and multiple lawmakers asking for clearer criteria for the batch process to avoid awarding megawatt allocations to projects that do not materialize.