Regional planners present preliminary flood vulnerability analysis for Gadsden County

The Apalachee Regional Planning Council presented initial results of a countywide vulnerability assessment that modeled future rainfall-induced flooding for Gadsden County, with planning horizons through 2050 and 2080 and 100- and 500-year flood scenarios.

"Between 6950 and 7594 parcels are projected to intersect future flood inundation areas, representing approximately $495,000,000 in estimated land value, as well as 79 to 114 critical assets across the 4 future flood scenarios," said Lydia Johnson of ARPC (speaker 14), who used an online story map to illustrate the parcels and assets exposed by municipality.

The assessment treats critical assets to include transportation infrastructure, emergency facilities, utilities, schools and natural, historical and cultural resources. Johnson also showed projected average flood depths ranging from about 5 feet to 18 feet in the modeled scenarios and said the analysis is preliminary: ARPC will finish the exposure and sensitivity analysis before packaging the final report for the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP).

Commissioners responded by noting practical implications: reclassification of floodplain areas could affect homeowner insurance rates, and rising flood levels could increase the risk of drinking-water contamination in some parts of the county. One commissioner urged the county to use the findings for planning decisions about where to build and where not to build in the coming decades.

ARPC said next steps include preparing a proposal for FDEP to develop a county-level adaptation plan with retrofit suggestions and to update the hazard component of the local mitigation strategy.