Statistical Approaches to Forensic Interpretation: Panel Discussion

Expert panel on forensic statistics · February 17, 2026

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Opening question: How to explain Bayes' rule to jurors

Presentation

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Speaker 1 opened by asking how an expert would explain Bayes' rule to a juror, noting many jurors struggle with math and asking whether likelihood ratios are comprehensible without training.

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An expert panel debated whether and how to present Bayesian likelihood ratios and other statistical frameworks in court, focusing on juror comprehension, transparency of methods, and empirical validation of models.

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