Lifetime Citizen Portal Access — AI Briefings, Alerts & Unlimited Follows
Study presented to Bryan council shows larger‑pumping scenario could enable billions in local economic output but requires mitigation and deeper wells
Loading...
Summary
Consultants from Westwater Research presented socioeconomic modeling comparing two Simsboro Aquifer scenarios (PS4‑2 and PS4‑3). PS4‑3 — the higher‑pumping alternative — would allow about 1,000,000 additional acre‑feet over 50 years and, per the model, could yield roughly $79.4 billion in added output, ~5,150 net full‑time equivalent jobs and 4,400 new homes; presenters and the Brazos Valley GCD stressed mitigation costs (roughly $94–110 million) and local protections for existing wells.
The Bryan City Council heard a presentation from Westwater Research and the Brazos Valley Groundwater Conservation District on a socioeconomic impact analysis tied to two alternative Desired Future Conditions for the Simsboro Aquifer.
Charlene Lorig, Texas regional director for Westwater Research, explained the study scope: GMA 12 asked districts to consider socioeconomic impacts as one of nine factors in setting DFCs. The consultants modeled two scenarios: PS4‑2 (the current GMA‑preferred trajectory) and PS4‑3 (a potential alternative Brazos Valley GCD asked GMA 12 to consider). She said PS4‑2 would draw down the aquifer’s artesian head about 284 feet on average by 2080, while PS4‑3 would draw down about 330 feet; PS4‑3 provides roughly an additional one million acre‑feet for municipal and industrial use in Brazos and Robertson counties over 50 years.
Harry Seeley, principal at Westwater Research, described the economic allocation and model results. He said the team allocated new groundwater among sectors (data centers, conventional power, a small nuclear facility allocation at RELLIS, and residential growth) and ran an IMPLAN regional model. Seeley summarized the modeled impacts of the higher‑pumping scenario versus the lower one: approximately $79.4 billion in additional regional output over the study period, about 268,000 job‑years (roughly equivalent to 5,150 enduring full‑time jobs), about $9.7 billion in additional tax revenue and an estimated 4,400 additional homes. He cautioned the model relies on assumptions and that some costs—deeper pumping, new well construction and increased electricity to lift water—moderate net benefits.
Alan Day of the Brazos Valley GCD said well‑mitigation measures negotiated for large transport permits (notably Upwell’s 50,000‑acre‑foot transport permit) result in mitigation costs that the district estimated at roughly $94–110 million and that past exporters (e.g., Vista Ridge) have already contributed measurable artesian‑head declines. Day stressed the district’s approach seeks to protect property‑right uses in the district and said future transport permits will be vetted to prioritize local needs.
Council members questioned whether the study had modeled the economic cost to the district of existing exports; presenters said that specific question was outside the study scope. Council also asked about allocation and what the city’s current permitted allocation is; staff and presenters cited district totals and confirmed the city holds a portion of permitted Simsboro volumes.
The presentation concluded with council requests for continued engagement with the GCD process and for the city to make its policy priorities known to legislators ahead of an active session on water policy.
